Massachusetts Mortgage Broker Blog

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

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Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory due to early stock weakness. Today’s economic data didn’t reveal many surprises and has not caused much movement in the markets. The Dow is currently down 49 points while the Nasdaq has lost 29 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates.

Yesterday’s afternoon release of the Fed Beige Book didn’t cause much alarm. It indicated that economic activity had slowed in many Fed districts from the last release, but signs were evident that the economy had not slipped back into a recession that some had feared. Many districts had reported minor increase in business and consumer spending, easing some concerns that the economy was about to slip back into a recession. The report was taken as neutral news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates.

The Labor Department announced early this morning that 403,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, matching analysts’ forecasts. An upward revision to the previous week’s total means we actually saw a decline in new claims, which can be considered negative for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates. However, it was not enough of a decline to draw much attention.

Late this morning, the Conference Board posted September’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). They said that the LEI rose 0.2%, meaning that it is predicting modest economic growth over the next several months. Analysts were expecting to see a 0.3% increase, so this release gave us weaker than forecasted results. Unfortunately, this is not enough of a variance in a moderately important report to help improve Massachusetts mortgage rates. As with the rest of this morning’s data, it is having little impact on today’s Massachusetts mortgage rates.

Today’s final report came from the National Association of Realtors, who said that sales or existing homes fell 3% last month. This was a larger than expected decline, but only because August’s sales were revised a little higher than previously announced. Without the revision, sales levels nearly matched forecasts. This means that no major surprises came in the report, preventing it from influencing bond trading and Massachusetts mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow has no relevant economic data scheduled for release, so look for the stock markets to be the biggest influence on bond trading and Massachusetts mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes put together a sizable rally, bonds will likely suffer and we will see a small increase to Massachusetts mortgage rates. On the other hand, stock weakness could lead to lower rates. I would not be surprised to see a fairly quiet day as the markets prepare for next week.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Wednesday’s bond market has opened fairly flat despite favorable economic data and a mixed open in stocks. The Dow is currently showing a gain of 34 points while the Nasdaq has lost 10 points. The bond market is nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, which should keep this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates at yesterday’s levels.

There were two relevant economic reports released this morning. The more important of the two, September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), came in with a 0.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data. The overall reading pegged forecasts, but the core data reading was slightly lower than the 0.2% that was expected. That indicates that core inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were weaker than thought, making the data favorable for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates.

September’s Housing Starts appeared to give us negative news by showing a sizable spike in starts of new home construction. The 15% jump in housing starts was well above forecasts and the most since April of last year. That would appear to indicate a strengthening housing sector, but dissecting the report paints a different picture. A large increase in starts of apartments and multi-family housing is being attributed to the overall increase, hinting that demand is for rental properties and not ownership of single family homes. In fact, a secondary reading in the report that tracks permits issued for new construction fell to a five month low, indicating that future housing starts are likely to be weaker. Therefore, we can consider this data fairly favorable for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates. Unfortunately, the low importance of this report and this morning’s stock activity are preventing a positive morning in bonds.

We do have a third report to watch for today. It will come at 2:00 PM this afternoon when the Federal Reserve posts their Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region and is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve when determining monetary policy at their FOMC meetings. If it reveals stronger signs of economic growth from the last release, we could see Massachusetts mortgage rates revise higher during late afternoon hours.

Tomorrow has three more reports scheduled that may influence Massachusetts mortgage rates. The first comes at 8:30 AM ET when the Labor Department announces last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to say that 403,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down slightly from the previous week. Unless we see a sizable drop or increase in new claims, this data will likely have little impact on bond trading and tomorrow’s Massachusetts mortgage rates. The higher the total claims, the better the news for mortgage borrowers.

September’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.3% from August’s reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to increase moderately over the next couple of months. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates, but this report is considered to be only moderately important. Therefore, a small increase would not be of much concern to the bond and mortgage markets. Ideally, we would like to see a decline in the index.

The National Association of Realtors will release September’s Existing Home Sales data at 10:00 AM also. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or Massachusetts mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a decline in sales from August to September, meaning the housing sector remained soft. That would be favorable news for the bond market since a weak housing sector makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite some much stronger than expected inflation news. Early weakness in stocks is helping to offset that data as investors continue to move away from yesterday’s 247 point drop in the Dow. This morning’s losses are much less with the Dow down 62 points and the Nasdaq down 11 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which should improve this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates by approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point over yesterday’s early pricing.

The Labor Department said early this morning that their Producer Price Index (PPI) for September jumped 0.8%, exceeding forecasts of a 0.2% rise by a wide margin. The more important core data reading was also stronger than forecasts, but fortunately the 0.2% increase was slightly above the 0.1% that was expected. This means that inflationary pressures were stronger at the producer level of the economy than many had thought. That is clearly negative news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates, but since the core data wasn’t a huge surprise and stocks are showing losses during morning trading, we have still been able to see improvement in bonds and rates.

Later today, Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak at a Boston Fed conference. His 1:15 PM ET speech likely is not going to be a major market mover. He will be speaking about the long-term impact the recession will have on the economy. It doesn’t seem to be a topic that is likely to reveal anything surprising, but his words always carry the potential to influence the markets and Massachusetts mortgage rates. Therefore, watch for changes during early afternoon hours.

Tomorrow has three reports scheduled that may influence Massachusetts mortgage rates. The first is the sister report of today’s inflation reading, September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.3% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns, pushing bond prices lower and Massachusetts mortgage rates higher. Inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market because it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. When inflation is a threat, even down the road, bonds sell for discounted prices that push their yields higher. And since Massachusetts mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, this leads to higher rates for mortgage borrowers. Good news would be weaker than expected reading.

September’s Housing Starts is the second release of the day, also coming at 8:30 AM ET. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or Massachusetts mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in new home starts between August and September. I believe we need to see a significant surprise in this data for it to influence Massachusetts mortgage rates.

The final report scheduled for release tomorrow will come during afternoon trading when the Federal Reserve posts their Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region and is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve when determining monetary policy at their FOMC meetings. If it reveals stronger signs of economic growth from the last release, we could see Massachusetts mortgage rates revise higher during afternoon hours tomorrow.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory due to early stock weakness. The major stock indexes are starting the week off with the Dow down 145 points and the Nasdaq down 29 points. The bond market is currently up 18/32, which should improve this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point from Friday’s levels.

Today’s only economic data failed to show any type of surprise in the manufacturing sector. September’s Industrial Production report revealed a 0.2% increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This matched forecasts and since it is considered to be of only moderate importance to the markets, it has had little impact on this morning’s trading or Massachusetts mortgage rates.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six more economic reports for the markets to digest, in addition to a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Also worth noting is the fact that this will be an extremely busy week for corporate earnings, which usually translates into stock volatility. The most important economic reports are scheduled for the middle part of the week, but we may see movement in mortgage rates each day. Intra-day revisions to Massachusetts mortgage rates on more than one day are also possible. Therefore, proceed with caution if closing in the near future.

Tomorrow’s data is one of the more important releases of the week. September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released at 8:30 AM ET. This is one of the two very important inflation readings we get each month, measuring inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could raise concerns in the bond market about future inflation and lead to higher Massachusetts mortgage rates tomorrow. However, weaker than expected readings should result in lower rates.

Overall, it appears that tomorrow or Wednesday are the likely candidates for the most important day of the week. In addition to the release of the PPI tomorrow, Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak at a Boston Fed conference during early afternoon hours. This adds to the days’ value as his words always have the potential to cause volatility in the markets. Besides the economic reports, there are many companies posting earning reports during the week, including some big names that include Apple, IBM and Intel. If the corporate earnings releases are generally weaker than forecasts, stocks may suffer, making bonds more appealing to investors. The end result would likely be an improvement in rates. The flip side though is stronger than expected earnings that drive stocks higher, pushing bond prices lower and Massachusetts mortgage rates upward. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

This week brings us the release of seven economic reports for the markets to digest, in addition to a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Also worth noting is the fact that this will be an extremely busy week for corporate earnings, which usually translates into stock volatility. The most important economic reports are scheduled for the middle part of the week, but we may see movement in mortgage rates each day. Intra-day revisions to Massachusetts mortgage rates on more than one day are also possible. Therefore, proceed with caution if closing in the near future.

Tomorrow has September’s Industrial Production data scheduled to be posted. It will be released mid-morning, giving us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase in output from August’s level, meaning that manufacturing activity rose slightly. A larger than expected increase in production would be negative for bonds and Massachusetts mortgage rates as it would indicate economic strength. A decline in output would likely push Massachusetts mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning.

September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released early Tuesday morning. This is one of the two very important inflation readings we get each month. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could raise concerns in the bond market about future inflation and lead to higher Massachusetts mortgage rates Tuesday. However, weaker than expected readings should result in lower rates.

Wednesday has three reports scheduled that may influence Massachusetts mortgage rates. The first is the sister report of Tuesday’s PPI. This would be September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.3% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns, pushing bond prices lower and Massachusetts mortgage rates higher. Inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market because it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. When inflation is a threat, even down the road, bonds sell for discounted prices that push their yields higher. And since Massachusetts mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, this leads to higher rates for mortgage borrowers.

September’s Housing Starts is Wednesday’s second release, also coming at 8:30 AM ET. This report will probably not have much of an impact on the bond market or Massachusetts mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking construction starts of new homes, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in new home starts between August and September. I believe we need to see a significant surprise in this data for it to influence Massachusetts mortgage rates.

The final report scheduled for release Wednesday will come during afternoon trading when the Federal Reserve posts its’ Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region and is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve when determining monetary policy at their FOMC meetings. If it reveals stronger signs of economic growth from the last release, we could see Massachusetts mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday has the last two reports of the week with the release of September’s Existing Home Sales data and Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), both at 10:00 AM ET. This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.3% from August’s reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to increase moderately over the next couple of months. That would be relatively bad news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates, but this report is considered to be only moderately important. Therefore, a small increase would not be of much concern to the bond and mortgage markets. Ideally, we would like to see a decline in the index.

The National Association of Realtors will release September’s Existing Home Sales data. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. I don’t see it having much of an influence on the bond market or Massachusetts mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts’ forecasts could lead to a slight change in Massachusetts mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a decline in sales from August to September, meaning the housing sector remained soft. That would be favorable news for the bond market since a weak housing sector makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

Overall, it appears that Tuesday or Wednesday are the likely candidates for the most important day of the week. In addition to the economic data Tuesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak at a Boston Fed conference during early afternoon hours. This adds to the days’ value as his words always have the potential to cause volatility in the markets. Besides the economic reports, there are many companies posting earning reports during the week, including some big names that include Apple, Citigroup, IBM and Intel. If the corporate earnings releases are generally weaker than forecasts, stocks may suffer, making bonds more appealing to investors. The end result would likely be an improvement in rates. The flip side though is stronger than expected earnings that drive stocks higher, pushing bond prices lower and Massachusetts mortgage rates upward. Accordingly, please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected consumer spending data and a positive open for stocks. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the data and decent earnings results last night. The Dow is currently up 95 points while the Nasdaq has gained 29 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32, which will likely push this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us this morning’s big economic news with the release of September’s Retail Sales report. It showed a 1.1% jump in retail level spending, greatly exceeding forecasts of a 0.6% increase. Even if more volatile auto-related transactions were excluded, sales rose 0.6% when analysts were expecting to see only a 0.3% rise. This means consumers were spending much more last month than many had thought. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this is good news for stocks because it boosts corporate earnings outlooks. However, it is bad news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates since it hints that the economy may be stronger than we think, making long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. That has led to this morning’s bond weakness and increase in Massachusetts mortgage pricing.

Also posted this morning was October’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. It revealed a reading of 57.5 that fell short of the 60.0 that was expected. This means surveyed consumers were more pessimistic about their own financial situations than last month. That is favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it is it believed that waning consumer confidence translates into lower levels of consumer spending. If consumers are more worried about losing their job or paying the mortgage, they are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future. Today’s early report contradicts that, but the sales data measures past spending while the sentiment index gives us an indication of future spending. Unfortunately, the sale data carries more significance in the market and is the focus of this morning’s trading.

Next week has a handful of reports scheduled for release that may influence Massachusetts mortgage rates. There is relevant data coming mid-morning Monday when we will get September’s Industrial Production data. The rest of the week is fairly busy with the release of several other reports including two key inflation readings, a couple of housing sector reports, the Fed Beige Book and a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Look for details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s minor economic data failed to reveal any significant surprises and the stock market rally appears to have run out of steam. The major indexes are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 120 points and the Nasdaq down 13 points. The bond market is currently up 20/32, which should improve this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Neither of this morning’s economic reports were considered highly important to the markets. August’s Trade Balance report revealed a $45.6 billion trade deficit, matching July’s revised deficit. This means that the trade deficit remained unchanged between July and August. With no change in a report of low importance, the data has had no impact on this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates.

The Labor Department said this morning that 404,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down slightly from the previous week’s revised total of 405,000. Analysts were expecting to see a small increase in the number of new claims, so technically this news is negative for bonds and Massachusetts mortgage rates. However, since it tracks only a single week’s worth of claims and the total number filed remained about 400,000, we have not seen much of a reaction to the data in today’s Massachusetts mortgage pricing.

Yesterday’s 10-year Note auction did not go very well at all. That gives us little to be optimistic about in today’s 30-year Bond auction. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, but unless we see a drastic difference from yesterday’s sale, I don’t believe this event will cause much change in this afternoon’s Massachusetts mortgage rates.

Also posted yesterday afternoon were the minutes from the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. They did give us some interesting tidbits, particularly about the divisiveness among the voting members of the group regarding what the Fed needs to do to boost economic growth. At least two members feel that another round of quantitative easing (purchasing more bonds) is needed to help get the economy moving at a faster pace. This would likely bode well for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates if a new plan is announced. Look for rumors and discussion about QE3 in the coming weeks.

The week closes tomorrow with the release of two economic reports, one of which is extremely important to the markets and Massachusetts rates. That would be September’s Retail Sales report that measures consumer spending. This data is very important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Therefore, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and Massachusetts mortgage rates should drop. However, stronger than expected sales would fuel optimism about the economy and would likely lead to a stock rally that hurts bonds prices and pushes Massachusetts mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.6% increase in sales. Good news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage pricing would be a much smaller increase.

The last report of the week is October’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. Good news for the bond market would be a sizable decline in consumer confidence, but due to the importance of the Retail Sales report, I suspect this data will have little impact on Massachusetts mortgage rates. It is expected to show a reading of 60.0, up from September’s final of 59.4. The lower the reading, the better the news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary