Your Daily Mortgage Commentary & Rate Lock Advice for Massachusetts Mortgage Rates
Courtesy of the Massachusetts Mortgage Broker
Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite a much weaker than expected housing report. The stock markets are posting minor gains with the Dow up 25 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, but we will still likely see an increase in this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates of approximately .125 – .250 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.
The National Association of Realtors reported late this morning that home resales fell a whopping 16.7% last month. Analysts were expecting to see a sizable decline in sales, but this was much larger than thought. The surprising drop indicates that the housing sector still is not stable, which is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Some of the loss is being attributed to the initial expiration of the home buyer tax credit, but I don’t believe many analysts are blaming the entire loss on that factor. This raises further concerns about the housing sector and makes a broader economic recovery less likely to be in the near future.
The rest of the week is extremely busy in terms of economic data scheduled for release and will likely be an active week for mortgage rates. There are six more relevant economic releases scheduled for the week in addition to a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
January’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be released late tomorrow morning. This report is considered to be of high-importance to the bond market and therefore can move mortgage rates. It is an indicator of consumer sentiment, which is important because a decline would be construed as a sign that consumers may be less willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, market participants are very attentive to related data. A reading smaller than the expected 53.5 would be ideal for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates.
And if we didn’t have enough to watch already, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions for the markets to digest. The Fed will auction 5-year and 7-year Treasury Notes Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, the broader bond market may rally during afternoon hours those days. However, a lackluster interest in the sales could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates.
Overall, look for tomorrow or Friday to be the biggest days for Massachusetts mortgage rates. Friday’s GDP is the single most important piece of data this week, but we may see quite a bit of movement in rates tomorrow also. If we see weaker than expected results from the most important reports, mortgage rates should close the week much lower than last Friday’s closing levels. If the data shows stronger than expected results, we may see mortgage rates move higher for the week. This is of course, assuming that the Fed meeting doesn’t reveal any surprises. I strongly recommend that fairly constant contact is maintained with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.
If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…
Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now….
This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float a Massachusetts mortgage based on the current mortgage market. Your individual situation may be different. Contact me if you would like advice for your particular circumstances.
For detailed information on Massachusetts mortgage rates, check out my article, “Massachusetts Mortgage Rates Revealed – How Lenders Determine Mortgage Rates Every Day“.
Copyright : Mortgage Commentary
Geof McLaughlin, better known as The Massachusetts Mortgage Broker, is a nationally acclaimed mortgage professional committed to educating and empowering consumers about all things mortgage through his popular Massachusetts Mortgage Broker blog.
Geof is a top loan originator for one of the country’s leading mortgage companies, Mortgage Master Inc, with a proven reputation of offering its clients the best Massachusetts mortgage rates and lowest closing costs. He can be reached directly at 508.656.0055 or at geof@MAMortgageBroker.com.
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