Massachusetts Mortgage Broker Blog

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Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

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Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending yesterday’s late rally. The stock markets are following suit with gains of their own. The Dow is currently up 62 points while the Nasdaq has gained 12 points. The bond market is currently 11/32, which should improve this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates by another .250 of a discount point. Overall, between yesterday afternoon’s and this morning’s improvements, we should see today’s rates approximately .500 – .625 of a discount lower than yesterday’s morning pricing.

The bond rally since yesterday afternoon is what we have been waiting for. I still believe that the stock markets are due for a pullback sooner than later and that could bring more funds into the bond market. The question is when exactly that pullback will come. Ideally, we would see it in the immediate future, such as tomorrow or early next week. If it does happen, I see a lot of money being shifted into bonds as a safe-haven. That would likely lead to another downward move for Massachusetts mortgage rates. However, we should proceed cautiously in the meantime if still floating an interest rate.

We had four economic reports posted this morning. The first was December’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET that revealed a 3.0% jump in new orders for big-ticket products at U.S. manufacturing facilities. This was a larger increase than was forecasted, meaning a stronger manufacturing sector. That would make the news negative for bonds and Massachusetts mortgage rates, but it is apparent that the markets weren’t too concerned about the news.

The Labor Department said early this morning that 377,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s revised total of 356,000. This is favorable news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates because it indicates a weakening employment sector. However, forecasts were calling for 375,000 new claims, so today’s bond strength is not a result of this data.

December’s New Home Sales report was posted at 10:00 AM ET. The Commerce Department reported that sales of newly constructed homes fell 2.2% last month when analysts were expecting to see an increase by the same margin. This shows that the new home portion of the housing sector remains weak. This is generally good news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates, but this data tracks such a small portion of all home sales that it usually does not draw much attention unless it its results vary greatly from forecasts.

The last report of the day was December’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a 0.4% increase, meaning that they are expecting the economy to expand moderately over the next three to six months. But since analysts were expecting to see a 0.7% rise, we can consider this data favorable for bonds and Massachusetts mortgage rates. Unfortunately, it is not considered to be one of the more important reports we see each month.

There is also today’s 7-year Note auction that we should watch for. Yesterday’s 5-year Note sale was met with a pretty strong demand from investors. If today’s auction has similar results, we could see bond prices rise slightly this afternoon. I don’t believe this, by itself, will lead to a sizable improvement in Massachusetts mortgage rates. But it a strong demand for the securities should help boost the broader bond market after the results are posted at 1:00 PM ET.

That is not the case for one of tomorrow’s economic reports. The first of two reports being released tomorrow morning is the initial reading of the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This data is extremely important to the markets because it is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. The GDP itself is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the United States. Its results usually have a major impact on the financial markets and can cause significant changes in Massachusetts mortgage rates. There are three readings to each quarter’s activity, each released approximately one month apart. The first reading, which usually carries the most significance, is expected to show that the economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2%. A noticeably weaker reading would be great news for the bond market, questioning the pace of the economic recovery. That would likely fuel stock selling and a rally in bonds that would push Massachusetts mortgage rates lower tomorrow morning. However, a stronger than expected reading should fuel bond selling and higher Massachusetts mortgage rates.

The last report of the week is the revised reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index is a measurement of consumer confidence that is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. I don’t see this data having much of an impact on the markets or Massachusetts mortgage rates due to the importance of the GDP reading. Forecasts are calling for a reading of 74.2, up slightly from January’s preliminary reading of 74.0.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with no change to key short-term interest rates. This was widely expected but the other Fed news did bring some surprises. The Fed revised their outlook for economic growth downward, meaning the economy is expanding at slower pace than what they previously estimated. They also announced that they expect to keep key interest rates at their current levels until late 2014, indicating long-term concern for the economy.

This news was well received by the financial markets. The Dow is currently up 84 points while the Nasdaq has gained 12 points. The bond market is currently up 19/32, which should lead to intra-day improvements in Massachusetts mortgage rates of approximately .250 – .375 of a discount point from this morning’s levels.

Today’s 5-year Treasury Note auction went very well, helping to fuel bond buying. However, the Fed news is the catalyst for this afternoon’s gains. We get to do this one again tomorrow though when 7-year Notes are sold. Tomorrow’s securities are closer in term to mortgage bonds, so you can argue that they are more important to Massachusetts mortgage rates then today’s were. However, traders seem to have a bigger reaction to the first of the two sales, so it often takes a much stronger or weaker demand than the initial sale for the second one to have a noticeable impact on Massachusetts mortgage rates. Results of tomorrow’s sale will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of three monthly economic reports along with weekly unemployment figures. The first is December’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years, also known as big-ticket items. The data often is quite volatile from month- to-month, but is currently expected to show an increase in orders of approximately 2.0%. A smaller than expected increase would be considered good news for bonds and Massachusetts mortgage rates, but a slight variance likely will have little impact on Massachusetts mortgage pricing due to its reputation of being volatile.

The Labor Department will give us last week’s unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. They are expected to announce that 375,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 352,000. That would make the data favorable for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage pricing because it would point towards a weakening employment sector. The larger the number of initial claims, the better the news for Massachusetts mortgage rates.

Next is December’s New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. It is considered to be the sister release to last week’s Existing Home Sales, giving us a small snapshot of housing sector strength. It tracks a much smaller portion of home sales than last week’s report did and is forecasted to show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes. However, this data is not important enough to heavily influence Massachusetts mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The fourth piece of economic data is December’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. The LEI attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is considered to be of moderate importance to the bond and mortgage markets. Analysts are currently expecting the Conference Board to post a 0.7% increase, meaning that economic growth over the next few months will likely rise fairly quickly. Generally speaking, this would be bad news for the bond market and Massachusetts mortgage rates because a strengthening economy makes long-term securities such as mortgage bonds less attractive to investors.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat again as it appears what was said in last night’s State of the Union is of little interest to the bond market. The stock markets are currently mixed with the Dow down 68 points but the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is up 1/32, which should keep this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates close to yesterday’s levels.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release this morning. The big news will come later today when the FOMC meeting adjourns at 12:30 PM ET and again after Chairman Bernanke’s press conference at 2:15 PM ET. It is common to see some movement in the markets and Massachusetts mortgage rates ahead of events like these as traders look to protect themselves or position themselves based on the latest rumors.

Today’s Fed events will also give us their forecast for key short-term interest rates, allowing the markets insight to the Fed’s thinking for the next couple years. This is a first and could very well be a significant market mover if even the smallest surprise is in those forecasts. The general consensus is that the Fed will leave the Federal Funds rate at its current level of nearly 0% until sometime in 2013. A shorter or longer timetable will likely fuel a sizable reaction in the markets and Massachusetts mortgage rates this afternoon.

Also today is the first of two Treasury auctions that may influence Massachusetts mortgage pricing. 5-year Notes will be sold today while 7-year Notes go to sale tomorrow. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, the broader bond market should thrive, possibly leading to slightly lower Massachusetts mortgage rates. On the other hand, weakness in the auctions could fuel bond selling and an upward revision to rates. The results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET (between FOMC adjournment and the press conference).

There is plenty of economic data on tap tomorrow, including Durable Goods Orders, weekly unemployment figures, New Home Sales and Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). However, we will address them in this afternoon’s updated report. We will post a revised report shortly after the Fed press conference so that the markets and Massachusetts mortgage rates have an opportunity to react the afternoon’s events.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Tuesday’s bond market has opened flat despite early stock weakness. The stock markets are showing relatively minor losses with the Dow down 45 points and the Nasdaq down 2 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from yesterday’s close, but we will likely see an improvement in this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

The stock markets are reacting to a rash of earnings news and concerns about overseas issues, particularly Greece. The earnings reports continue this week with Apple announcing results later today. Earnings from overseas companies are raising some concerns about the impact that Europe’s financial crisis is having on the global economy. Unfortunately, bonds and Massachusetts mortgage rates have not benefited yet as traders seem to be content at current yields until we get to the heart of this week’s agenda. It starts tonight with the President’s State of the Union speech at 9:00 PM ET and moves into some key events tomorrow.

Tomorrow does not have any relevant economic reports scheduled for release that could affect Massachusetts mortgage rates, but we do have the adjournment of the two-day FOMC meeting that began today. It will adjourn at 12:30 PM ET rather than the traditional 2:15 PM because Fed Chairman Bernanke will be hosting a press conference at 2:15 PM tomorrow. The meeting itself is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rates, but traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move and when they may make it. This is one of four meetings this year that will be followed by a press conference hosted by Fed Chairman Bernanke and should include some forecasts and outlooks for key short-term interest rates.

Also tomorrow is the first of two Treasury auctions that may influence Massachusetts mortgage pricing. 5-year Notes will be sold tomorrow while 7-year Notes go to sale Thursday. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, the broader bond market should thrive, possibly leading to slightly lower Massachusetts mortgage rates. On the other hand, weakness in the auctions could fuel more bond selling and an upward revision to rates. The results of each sale are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day.

I suspect we will see an extremely active day tomorrow with the markets reacting to tonight’s State of the Union address during early trading, then having the FOMC meeting adjournment and Treasury auction to deal with mid-day. And then heading into the middle of the afternoon, we get to watch the press conference influence the markets and Massachusetts mortgage rates. I would not be surprised to see at least one intra-day revision to Massachusetts mortgage pricing tomorrow.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory as investors prepare for the week. The stock markets are starting the week in positive ground with the Dow up 35 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32, which will likely push this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Today has nothing scheduled that is of relevance to the mortgage market. The rest of the week is quite busy in terms of economic data and other events that may impact Massachusetts mortgage rates. There are five economic releases scheduled for the week, all coming the latter part. All but one of the five reports are considered to be of moderate or high importance. In addition, we also have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year that will include a press conference and key rate forecasts with Chairman Bernanke, two potentially influential Treasury auctions and the President’s State of the Union address. All this will likely translate into quite a bit of movement in the financial markets and Massachusetts mortgage rates this week.

There is nothing scheduled for tomorrow, at least not during regular trading hours. Therefore, we can expect the stock markets and any potential news from overseas to drive bond trading and Massachusetts mortgage pricing. If the major stock indexes show strength, bonds will probably falter, leading to higher Massachusetts mortgage rates tomorrow. President Obama will make his State of the Union address at 9:00 PM ET tomorrow evening.

Wednesday also has no relevant economic data scheduled for release, although it does have this year’s first FOMC meeting results. The meeting will begin tomorrow and adjourn at 12:30 PM ET Wednesday. It is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rates, but as is often the case, traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move and when they may make it. The meeting will adjourn early instead of the regular 2:15 PM time because it is one of four meetings this year that will be followed by a press conference hosted by Fed Chairman Bernanke.

Overall, look for Wednesday or Friday to be the biggest days for Massachusetts mortgage rates. Friday’s GDP release is the single most important piece of data this week, but we may see quite a bit of movement in rates Wednesday morning and again in the afternoon following the Fed’s time in the spotlight. I would be quite surprised if we did not see a very active week in rates, including intra-day revisions on multiple days. I strongly recommend that constant contact is maintained with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

This week is quite busy in terms of economic data and other events that are relevant to Massachusetts mortgage rates and is likely to be an active one for mortgage rates. There are five economic releases scheduled for the week in addition to the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year that will include a press conference with Chairman Bernanke, two potentially influential Treasury auctions and the President’s State of the Union address. All but one of the five economic reports are considered to be of moderate or high importance, meaning we should see quite a bit of movement in Massachusetts mortgage rates this week.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for tomorrow or during trading hours Tuesday, thus we can expect the stock markets and any potential news from overseas to drive bond trading and Massachusetts mortgage pricing. If the major stock indexes post strong gains, bonds will probably falter, leading to higher Massachusetts mortgage rates the early part of the week. President Obama will make his State of the Union address at 9:00 PM ET Tuesday evening. Topics and parts of the speech will be leaked prior, which may influence the markets during regular hours the first two days of the week. The biggest reaction to his words will come Wednesday morning.

Wednesday also has no relevant economic data scheduled for release, although it does have this year’s first FOMC meeting results. The meeting will begin Tuesday and adjourn at 12:30 PM ET Wednesday. It is expected to yield no change to short-term interest rates, but as is often the case, traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move and when they may make it. I believe that there is little chance of indicating a possible rate hike in the near future, but any hints of a change in theories or timetable by the Fed will cause afternoon volatility in the financial and mortgage markets. The meeting will adjourn early instead of the regular 2:15 PM time because it is one of four meetings this year that will be followed by a press conference hosted by Fed Chairman Bernanke.

Thursday morning brings us the release of three of the week’s economic reports. The first is December’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking new orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years, also known as big-ticket items. The data often is quite volatile from month- to-month, but is currently expected to show an increase in orders of approximately 2.0%. A smaller than expected increase would be considered good news for bonds and Massachusetts mortgage rates, but a slight variance likely will have little impact on Thursday’s mortgage pricing.

Next is December’s New Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. It is considered to be the sister release to last week’s Existing Home Sales, giving us a small snapshot of housing sector strength. It tracks a much smaller portion of home sales than last week’s report did and is forecasted to show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes. However, this data is not important enough to heavily influence Massachusetts mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The third report of the day is December’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. The LEI attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is considered to be of moderate importance to the bond and mortgage markets. Analysts are currently expecting the Conference Board to post a 0.7% increase, meaning that economic growth over the next few months will likely rise fairly quickly. Generally speaking, this would be bad news for the bond market because a strengthening economy makes long-term securities such as mortgage bonds less attractive to investors.

The remaining two economic reports will be released Friday morning, one of which is arguably the single most important reports that we see regularly. That would be the initial reading of the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) early Friday morning. This data is so important because it is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. The GDP itself is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the United States. Its results usually have a major impact on the financial markets and can cause significant changes in Massachusetts mortgage rates. There are three readings to each quarter’s activity, each released approximately one month apart. The first reading, which usually carries the most significance, is expected to be an increase of 3.1%. A noticeably weaker reading would be great news for the bond market, questioning the pace of the economic recovery. That would likely fuel stock selling and a rally in bonds that would push Massachusetts mortgage rates lower Friday morning. However, a stronger than expected reading should fuel bond selling and higher Massachusetts mortgage rates.

The last report of the week is the revised reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index is a measurement of consumer confidence that is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. I don’t see this data having much of an impact on the markets or Massachusetts mortgage rates due to the importance of the GDP reading.

And if we didn’t have enough to watch already, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions for the markets to digest. The Fed will auction 5-year and 7-year Treasury Notes Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, the broader bond market may rally during afternoon hours those days. If the sales draw a lackluster interest, they could lead to bond selling and higher Massachusetts mortgage rates during afternoon hours those days.

Overall, look for Wednesday or Friday to be the biggest days for mortgage rates. Friday’s GDP is the single most important piece of data this week, but we may see quite a bit of movement in rates Wednesday morning and again in the afternoon following the Fed’s time in the spotlight. I would be quite surprised if we did not see a very active week in rates, including intra-day revisions on multiple days. I strongly recommend that constant contact is maintained with your mortgage professional this week if still floating an interest rate.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary

Mortgage Commentary on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

Subscribe here to have Massachusetts mortgage rates updates delivered to your inbox automatically.

Friday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again following a mixed open in stocks and stronger than expected economic data. The Dow is showing strength with a gain of 54 points, but the Nasdaq is down 5 points. The bond market is currently down 10/32, which with yesterday’s late weakness should cause this morning’s Massachusetts mortgage rates to rise by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterday’s morning trading pattern didn’t hold during afternoon hours. The bond market lost ground instead of improving from where it was at pricing time. This led some lenders to revise rates higher during afternoon trading, but some may have opted to wait until today to reflect the change. Today’s early losses puts the benchmark 10-year Note yield above 2.00% again, so it will be interesting to see which way we move. If 2.00% is a level of resistance, we should see bond prices move higher and the yield fall below in the immediate future. This would mean that we should see Massachusetts mortgage rates improve also.

There was only one piece of economic data released this morning. That was December’s Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors late this morning. It showed an increase in home resales last month of 5.0%, exceeding forecasts. This is a sign that the housing sector was stronger than expected in December, making the data unfavorable for bonds and Massachusetts mortgage rates. Bonds tend to fair better in weaker economic conditions, so signs of economic strength translates into weaker bonds and higher Massachusetts mortgage rates.

Next week brings us several important events that may influence the financial and mortgage markets. In addition to a handful of economic reports (one of which is arguable the single most important report), we also have the first FOMC meeting of the year, two semi-relevant Treasury auctions and the President’s State of the Union address Tuesday evening. There is nothing of importance scheduled for Monday, so the safe bet is on stocks and/or news from over the weekend to drive bond trading and Massachusetts mortgage rates. Look for details on next week’s calendar in Sunday’s weekly preview.

Lock or Float Advice based on Massachusetts Mortgage Rate Trends

If I were considering purchasing or refinancing a home and predicting likely Massachusetts mortgage rates, I would…

Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days…
Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…
Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

This is only a general opinion of what I would do if I were considering whether to lock or float based on Massachusetts mortgage rate trends. Your individual situation may be different.

Copyright : Mortgage Commentary